Welcome to the Super Model

Polls stink. Forecasters stink. Markets are decent. This might be a bit better.

Our humble goal is to bring you the most accurate, most actionable intel in the dazzling world of event forecasting.

We neither pretend to, nor care to, build fundamental, bottom-up models to divine black-box probabilistic forecasts about elections, economic events, or pop culture.

Plenty of folks already do that.

Some are good. Most are garbage.

Instead, we’re firm believers in - and grizzled practitioners of - the markets.

We have the honor of living amidst a golden explosion of event markets - regulated markets, crypto markets, offshore betting exchanges, play-money markets, crowdsourced forecasting platforms, and other assorted nonsense.

As with forecasters, some markets are better than others…

• Some charge higher fees, which makes correcting mispricing more expensive

• Some have fat tick sizes (only incrementing prices by whole percentages)

• Some have limits on how big a position you can take

• Some are only denominated in cryptocurrencies

• Some have low volume and low liquidity

• Some are only available in certain jurisdictions

• Some are only available to very wealthy investors

• Some may be dominated by ideological partisans

But ALL of these imperfect markets are downstream from every public forecaster, from Nate Silver to that fellow who waves around the mystical 13 Keys to the White House^TM, which means each is probably more reliable than any of its fundamental inputs - from forecasts to polls to economic data to fundraising or even early-vote data.

If it’s data you can access, it’s data the market has already incorporated into its pricing.

If you subscribe to any version of the efficient market hypothesis, that ought to mean that all of this public info (to the extent it’s any good), is incorporated into market prices.

So our approach to bringing you the best possible signals and prices is relatively simple:

• Collect real-time prices from leading regulated, crypto, and play-money markets from around the world (lots of tricky plumbing, but we’ve got it under control)

• Quantify which are better than others in various situations and weight them accordingly

• Tease out the even sharper under-the-hood signal from high-performing traders whose activity we can track

• Deliver you a rock-solid, state-of-the-art Super Signal for big events like the presidential election, control of Congress, Fed rate decisions, economic conditions and geopolitics.

Super Model Presidential Market Aggregate (Oct 11)

With the advent of regulated event trading (including on elections, thanks to the likes of Kalshi and Interactive Brokers) in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. elections, we’re witnessing an explosion of market-based intelligence into globally significant uncertainties the likes of which we’ve never seen.

Superior handicapping of (and thus preparedness for and protection against) these and other geopolitical, economic and world events stands to benefit humanity immeasurably, not only in terms of risk management, but - should you be a participant in these markets - your potential to profit from the occasional mispricings therein.

We mentioned above that some market signals are better than others. And once in a while, ALL the markets get something wrong. So we not only aim to bring you a better, curated, market-derived signal on these outcomes. We aim to alert you to when there are trading or even risk-free arbitrage opportunities presented by mispricings in these markets.

So here’s what you’ll get here…

• Aggregates (finely weighted composite pricing across all major trading venues)

• Alerts (follow us on X/Twitter with the bell on to be notified when markets move)

• Analysis (in-depth written, audio and video content from our stable of experts)

• Arbitrage (we’ll let you know when markets disagree enough that you can book risk-free profits)

We’ve gone to great lengths to hook up our real-time plumbing to every leading prediction market around the world and we’re rolling out new aggregates and indices semi-furiously.

In short, we’ve amassed for you the most comprehensive minute-by-minute database of prediction market prices available most anywhere.

We’d be honored if you’d allow us to funnel that finely curated firehose right into your inbox.